Interglacial v. Human Global Warming
Global Warming - Fifth Interglacial Warming or First Human Warming?
The way I see it the present set of facts which are being used to prove human global warming are more likely to be evidence that we are in an interglacial warming period. This was Rachel Carson's view in The Sea Around Us. She presented evidence to show that warming had begun in 1900 and that is why I think the present warming is interglacial, not human. She explained that there had been four or more interglacial warming periods. There have been times when Hudson's Bay had had the climate of Georgia and times when Georgia has had the climate of Hudson's Bay. I have never seen a single piece of evidence tending to show that this warming period is in any way different from previous episodes of interglacial global warming.
The implications
The chief implication is the difference in policy. There is nothing we can do about interglacial global warming except prepare for it. If Al Gore and climatologists really know how fast it is happening, then they could tell us who has to move back from beach-front property and when. They could tell us when the Mississippi Valley is going to flood as it has done in past interglacial periods. It would be expensive to prepare for an interglacial period especially if climatologists can't really say when anything will happen. But perhaps we should do it or - if climatologists refuse to make concrete predictions - we can await events.
Meanwhile we are about to waste huge sums on foolishly trying to stop interglacial global warming on the assumption that the observed trend is human global warming which we caused with our cars. If the trend is real and is caused by interglacial warming then we didn't start it and we can't stop it. We can only waste money spitting into the wind. And then we will need the wasted money to deal with the interglacial warming anyhow - and we won't have it.
The point is that money spent on stopping human global warming would be spent differently than money spent preparing for an interglacial global warming. So we need to know which this.
The way I see it the present set of facts which are being used to prove human global warming are more likely to be evidence that we are in an interglacial warming period. This was Rachel Carson's view in The Sea Around Us. She presented evidence to show that warming had begun in 1900 and that is why I think the present warming is interglacial, not human. She explained that there had been four or more interglacial warming periods. There have been times when Hudson's Bay had had the climate of Georgia and times when Georgia has had the climate of Hudson's Bay. I have never seen a single piece of evidence tending to show that this warming period is in any way different from previous episodes of interglacial global warming.
The implications
The chief implication is the difference in policy. There is nothing we can do about interglacial global warming except prepare for it. If Al Gore and climatologists really know how fast it is happening, then they could tell us who has to move back from beach-front property and when. They could tell us when the Mississippi Valley is going to flood as it has done in past interglacial periods. It would be expensive to prepare for an interglacial period especially if climatologists can't really say when anything will happen. But perhaps we should do it or - if climatologists refuse to make concrete predictions - we can await events.
Meanwhile we are about to waste huge sums on foolishly trying to stop interglacial global warming on the assumption that the observed trend is human global warming which we caused with our cars. If the trend is real and is caused by interglacial warming then we didn't start it and we can't stop it. We can only waste money spitting into the wind. And then we will need the wasted money to deal with the interglacial warming anyhow - and we won't have it.
The point is that money spent on stopping human global warming would be spent differently than money spent preparing for an interglacial global warming. So we need to know which this.
Labels: global warming, interglacial warming, Rachel Carson
posted by wildswan at 7/17/2007 05:59:00 PM
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